Transatlantic Shift, Strategic Autonomy and Ukraine
In a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, the European Union faces unprecedented challenges that require a fundamental rethinking of its role on the world stage. The Trump return to the White House in 2024 and his administration's policy has marked a dramatic shift in the transatlantic relationship, which for decades has served as the foundation of the international order. Statements of possible withdrawal from NATO, demands to increase European defence spending, and consistent disregard for the values of the transatlantic partnership not only undermine established alliances, but also create a new reality for Ukraine, which finds itself in the focal point of geopolitical confrontation. In this context, the EU's strategic autonomy ceases to be an abstract concept and becomes an urgent necessity, and Ukraine's future increasingly depends on the ability of Europe to assume the role of guarantor of security and stability in the region.
The European Union is on the threshold of historical changes. The demise of the traditional transatlantic order, the need for strategic autonomy and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine create both serious challenges and new opportunities for the EU.
The demise of the transatlantic order
The transatlantic partnership which has served as the cornerstone of European security for decades, is experiencing an unprecedented crisis. The Trump administration is demonstrating a clear departure from the traditional U.S. policy of supporting European allies, which poses fundamental challenges to the European security architecture. The U.S. president has repeatedly expressed scepticism about the value of NATO to American interests and has openly demanded a significant increase in defence spending from European countries, calling into question American security guarantees. This rhetoric is accompanied by concrete actions, that indicate a reorientation of U.S. foreign policy priorities and raise doubts about the resilience of the democratic alliance.
Trump's statements about a possible withdrawal from NATO reflect a profound transformation of American foreign policy, which is increasingly oriented toward bilateral agreements and a transactional approach to international relations. The actual retreat of the U.S. from the role of guarantor of European security creates a strategic vacuum that the European Union is forced to fill on its own. As French President Emmanuel Macron rightly pointed out, “Europe can no longer rely solely on the United States”, which emphasizes the need to develop autonomous security mechanisms. And this position is increasingly obtained support among European leaders who realize that the era of unconditional American protection is coming to an end.
The transformation of transatlantic relations is particularly evident in the context of the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration is showing apparent waning support for Ukraine, which contrasts with previous U.S. policy. Demands for “normalization of relations” with Russia and pressure on Ukraine for territorial concessions indicate a fundamental rethinking of U.S. interests in the region. This creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and anxiety in Kyiv, where U.S. support has traditionally been seen as a key factor in deterring Russian aggression. Under these conditions, European support becomes crucial for Ukrainian statehood and territorial integrity.
Geostrategic soft spots of the European Union
The European Union faces a set of interrelated economic and defence challenges that require a systemic response. The need to increase defence spending in the context of economic lagging to the United States and China creates additional pressure on European budgets. According to the European Commission, the average level of defence spending in EU countries is about 1.5% of GDP, which is significantly below the NATO target of 2% . Trump's demand to raise this figure to 3% seems difficult to achieve for many European economies, especially in the context of slowing economic growth and existing budget constraints.
The EU's economic competitiveness is a growing concern in Brussels. Economic shortfall compare to the US and China in key sectors of the modern economy, including digital technology, artificial intelligence and green energy, threatens the long-term prospects for European prosperity. The war in Ukraine has also exposed Europe's geostrategic vulnerabilities. This situation calls for a comprehensive approach to ensuring the EU's economic security and technological independence.
Internal fragmentation exacerbates the external challenges facing the EU. The rise of nationalist sentiments in a number of member states and the tendency of some governments to illiberal policies make it difficult to form a unified European position on key security and foreign policy issues. This trend creates additional obstacles to the realization of ambitious plans to achieve strategic autonomy and strengthen the EU's geopolitical influence. Overcoming internal divisions becomes a prerequisite for an effective response to external challenges and strengthening the EU's international position.
Strategic autonomy: from concept to necessity
The notion of strategic autonomy has undergone significant evolution since its emergence in European political discourse. Initially considered primarily in the context of defence policy it has gradually acquired a broader meaning, encompassing various aspects of international relations. In the 2016 EU Global Strategy strategic autonomy was presented as an ambitious goal, encompassing not only the military dimension, but also the economy, technology and the EU's ability to act independently in the international arena. This approach reflected a growing realization of the need for a comprehensive approach to European security in a changing world.
EU former High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell defined strategic autonomy as “a process of political survival”, emphasizing the existential nature of this task for the future of the European Union. This statement reflects a fundamental rethinking of the EU's place in the contemporary system of international relations and a recognition of the need for a more active and autonomous foreign policy. In an increasingly unpredictable international environment, European leaders increasingly speak of the need to “learn to speak the language of power” and develop the ability to defend its interests without excessive dependence on external actors.
The economic dimension of strategic autonomy is becoming increasingly important in European strategic thinking. In January 2025, the European Commission presented the Competitiveness Compass, a new roadmap for restoring Europe's economic dynamism and fostering sustainable growth. This document reflects a growing awareness of the relationship between economic power and geopolitical influence, and the need to strengthen the economic base to ensure strategic autonomy. Mario Draghi, in his report on EU competitiveness, emphasized the need to overcome the fragmentation of the single market and the importance of a coherent industrial policy noting that “the EU must act decisively and quickly to keep up in the global technological race”.
However, the defence dimension remains a critical aspect of strategic autonomy. Despite the establishment of the €8 billion European Defence Fund, the EU continues to lag far behind the United States in the military-technological sphere. Overcoming this gap requires not only increased funding, but also qualitative improvements in coordination between national defence programs, the development of joint arms projects, and the creation of effective collective defence mechanisms. Striving for defence autonomy does not mean abandoning the transatlantic partnership, but implies the development of additional capabilities that will allow the EU to act independently when necessary.
Strengthening the Franco-German core
The Franco-German partnership has traditionally been seen as the engine of European integration and in the face of new geopolitical challenges, its importance is only growing. The new German government under the leadership of Friedrich Merz shows a potential willingness to play a more active role in European politics which, combined with France's traditional ambitions, creates an opportunity to strengthen the Franco-German core of the European Union. This trend could form the basis for a more decisive and coherent European foreign and defence policy that meets the demands of a changing international environment.
France and Germany have already demonstrated their ability to act together in crisis situations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, they proposed an ambitious European economic recovery plan that formed the basis of the NextGenerationEU program. This experience of joint crisis leadership sets an important precedent for future joint security and defence initiatives. The convergence of French and German positions on strategic autonomy could be a decisive factor in forging a pan-European consensus on this issue.
Strengthening the Franco-German tandem is also of particular importance in the context of support for Ukraine. Both countries play a key role in shaping European policy toward the Ukrainian war, and their joint leadership can ensure the consistency and effectiveness of this policy. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stressed the need for European participation in Ukraine negotiations, warning that the exclusion of European states from the process could be a “turning point” for transatlantic relations. This position reflects the growing desire of European leaders for greater autonomy on regional security issues.
Consolidation of European unity
The idea of strategic autonomy, long controversial among EU member states, is now gaining support in European capitals. This shift in perception creates favourable conditions for strengthening European unity and improving security and defence coordination. Especially notable changes are taking place in the position of Eastern European countries, which have traditionally favoured close cooperation with the United States and NATO. In the face of the uncertainty of U.S. policy these states are becoming more favourable to the idea of reinforcing European defence, signalling the emergence of a new consensus on strategic autonomy.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in her State of the Union address, emphasized the need to form a “geopolitical Commission” and to elevate the EU's role on the world stage. This rhetoric reflects the growing awareness of geopolitical challenges and the need for a more active and independent EU foreign policy. Support for this position by key European leaders provides the basis for a more coherent approach to security and defence issues, which is a prerequisite for realizing the concept of strategic autonomy.
The consolidation of European unity is also manifested in the growing realization of the need to “speak with one voice” in the international arena. The formation of a unified European position on key international issues is becoming a necessary condition for increasing the EU's global influence and protecting its strategic interests.
Ukraine: new challenges, new opportunities
Ukraine has found itself in the epicenter of geopolitical transformations caused by changes in American foreign policy. The Trump administration's statements about withdrawal of support for Ukraine and calls for territorial concessions and suspicious deals fails to establish the conditions for a just peace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his speech at the Munich Security Conference emphasized the need for continued international support and warned against “dangerous compromises” that could undermine Ukrainian statehood. In these circumstances, Ukraine's future increasingly depends on the willingness of the European Union to take a leading role in supporting Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity.
Coalition of Willing. The European Union faces the need to develop a comprehensive strategy towards Ukraine taking into account both new geopolitical realities and the long-term interests of European security. A key element of this strategy should be the creation of the “coalition of willing” ready to actively support Ukraine regardless the possible risks and costs. Despite the obvious positive trend towards EU consolidation, turning Brussels into a real supranational decision-making center is a long and ambiguous process. And geopolitical events in the world and Ukraine require an immediate response. Therefore, this format will make it possible to overcome the limitations associated with the need to achieve unanimity on sensitive issues and provide a more flexible and effective mechanism for coordinating European assistance.
War-time accession paradigm. Ukraine's economic support and integration also require a new approach that takes into account both immediate reconstruction needs and long-term development goals. The EU should accelerate Ukraine's economic integration, including increased access of Ukrainian producers to the European market and increased investment in key sectors of the Ukrainian economy. Particular attention should be paid to the separation of economic and political transformations, which could be developed in parallel rather than sequentially. This approach would accelerate the process of compliance and create a stronger basis for long-term cooperation, while taking into account the complexity and multifaceted nature of the integration process.
Economic support for Ukraine should include not only traditional financial assistance, but also more innovative strategies. One of them could be the use of frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy. This measure would not only provide additional resources for recovery, but would also set an important precedent for future instances of aggression, emphasizing the economic cost of aggressive foreign policy.
Fast-track and Security Guarantees. Undoubtedly, military support for Ukraine is becoming one of the priorities of European policy. Equally important are investments in the Ukrainian defence industry, which will allow the country to increase its defence self-sufficiency in the long term. However, accelerating Ukraine's integration into European structures should become a strategic priority for the EU. Providing Ukraine with clear strategic security guarantees will strengthen Ukraine's position and create a basis for long-term stability in the region.
EU support for Ukraine is particularly important in the context of growing uncertainty in U.S. policy. French Minister Delegate for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad emphasized that withholding support for Ukraine would be a historic mistake and would be detrimental to international security. This statement reflects the growing realization in European capitals of Ukraine's strategic importance for the future of European security. The formation of a new European security architecture based on the principles of strategic autonomy should take into account the interests and needs of Ukraine as an important regional partner of the EU.
As the European Union rethinks its role in ensuring regional security, Ukraine could become a key EU partner in Eastern Europe. The pursuit of strategic autonomy requires the EU to become more actively involved in ensuring stability in neighbouring regions, and support for Ukraine could become an important element of this strategy. Successful integration of Ukraine into European structures will not only strengthen the EU's position, but also demonstrate the EU's ability to pursue an effective foreign policy and ensure security in its immediate neighbourhood.
Conclusion
The Trump administration’s actions pose substantial challenges to the EU and Ukraine, yet simultaneously provides a chance to redefine the EU’s role in regional security. Strategic autonomy is no longer an abstract concept and is becoming an urgent necessity in a changing world where traditional alliances no longer guarantee security and stability. Strengthening the Franco-German core of the EU, consolidating European unity and developing a comprehensive strategy to support Ukraine may become key elements of a new European policy aimed at overcoming the strains of the transforming geopolitical landscape.
For Ukraine, shifts in transatlantic relations give rise to significant threats, but also open up opportunities for closer integration with the European Union. Ukraine can become a key EU partner in Eastern Europe and an important element of a new European security architecture based on the principles of strategic autonomy. Realizing this potential requires Ukraine to continue reforms and adapt to European standards, and the EU to be ready to assume a new level of responsibility for ensuring regional stability. The resilience of European security hinges on the EU’s capacity to adapt to the demands of a rapidly shifting global landscape and to construct a strategic framework that safeguards the interests of the EU and its allies.
The road to strategic autonomy will be difficult and will require political will, considerable effort and resources and strategic vision. However, the alternative – passivity and reactivity – could marginalize the EU in world politics and undermine its fundamental values and interests. The EU's strategic autonomy is not just a political concept, but a necessary response to fundamental changes in the international environment. It is not only a matter of political survival, but also an opportunity for Europe to redefine its role in the emerging global reality. Ultimately, the EU's success in responding to the new realities will depend on its ability to overcome internal divisions, mobilize resources and show leadership in addressing key global challenges. This is the only way for the EU to both sustain and bolster its status as a major force in global affairs.