Ukrainian grain and European solidarity

When Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, started to face problems with grain supplies due to Russia's invasion, the European Union opened duty-free food imports from Ukraine, which could have the unintended consequence of lowering prices and hurting farmers in several countries in the eastern part of the European Union. As part of the agreement aimed at protecting these countries, the EU allowed a certain amount of grain to transit through, but banned its sale on the domestic market.

The EU ban, which was introduced in May and expired on September 15, applied to exports of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

The ban was a response to concerns by these countries that the flow of cheap, duty-free food imports from Ukraine was hurting their farmers. All five countries had imposed severe restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports before the EU ban came into effect and it frustrated officials in Brussels and Kyiv.

Since their introduction, the bans have become a point of deepening friction between Brussels and Kyiv, which considers them "unacceptable" and contrary to the spirit of solidarity with the country after the outbreak of a full-scale war with Russia.

Several EU member states, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, have expressed "serious concerns" about the detrimental impact of the restrictions on the single market, which should function under equal rules for all countries.

The European Commission has committed itself to gradually lifting the embargo by September 15 and working on alternative solutions, such as improving infrastructure and increasing transport capacity across the Danube River, which could at least somehow reduce the burden on highways after the collapse of the Black Sea corridor.

But as the deadline approached, political pressure intensified.

Five Eastern European countries demanded that the ban be extended until the end of the year.

Poland, the largest of the group, led the public campaign and took an uncompromising stance, openly threatening the European Commission to impose a unilateral nationwide ban on Ukrainian grain after September 15.

The electoral context

This seemingly economic conflict has been unfolding as elections in Slovakia and Poland are approaching (Poland's elections are scheduled for October 15, Slovakia's were held on September 30) and farmers in both countries, which are an important voting bloc, have been vociferously complaining about low prices, which they blame on Ukrainian grain leaking into local markets.

Poland's right-wing Law and Justice party is particularly dependent on the rural electorate. Jaroslaw Kaczynski's dominant party Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) has traditionally relied on the support of rural voters, particularly farmers. And although they no longer constitute the majority of the electorate, they are able to determine the results.

However, it is not only the current Morawiecki government that supports the embargo, but also the opposition. A recent debate in the European Parliament, scheduled at the request of the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska – center-right opposition party), proved this. In particular, its leader Donald Tusk and the head of the AGROunia, Michal Kolodziejczak, in a joint letter called on the European Parliament not only to extend the ban for a year, but also to extend it to dairy products, eggs, chicken, honey, vegetables and some types of fruit from Ukraine.

The position of PiS's main competitor in the electoral field, the Polish Peasant Party, is also categorical, as its representatives have been seeking tough measures against Ukrainian agricultural products since the beginning of the grain crisis.

Geopolitical context

At the same time, the issue is not only about elections. Poland's Minister of Agriculture Robert Telus has already warned that if the EU does not create new instruments to protect manufacturers in Ukraine's neighboring countries, Warsaw will not agree to Ukraine's accession to the EU.

In his opinion, "Ukrainian agricultural products are a threat to the entire EU agriculture", so conditions for Ukraine's accession to the EU should be introduced.

At the same time, such statements are seen by Ukraine as Warsaw raising the stakes in relations with Kyiv, using the context of European integration aspirations and believes that Poland's demands hide a desire to control the conditions of Ukraine's accession to the EU.

This is a serious challenge. Until now, Poland has been perceived as Ukraine's advocate in the EU. Now, the situation may change – Poland may obstruct in order to achieve its political goals, as Hungary, for example, practices.

Since this is a clear violation of the Association Agreement with the EU and the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Ukrainian government was ready to defend the interests of the state in international court. The Prime Minister of Ukraine announced that he would apply to WTO arbitration if Warsaw continued to block the export of Ukrainian grain, and Ukraine filed a lawsuit with the WTO against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia.

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Thus, the seemingly purely economic issue of Ukrainian grain exports to the European Union raises two extremely important political questions for the future of the EU. 

First, if reaching a consensus in the EU-27 format on not too controversial issues proves to be so problematic, how can we achieve efficiency in decision-making in the context of potential expansion to the EU-35?

And secondly, and even more importantly, if in the context of war on the European continent and the existence of a common and obvious threat, the governments of the EU member states use conflicts with Brussels for their own electoral purposes, can we expect at least minimal concessions from the member states in their national interests for the sake of the common European good and the future of a United Europe project?  

And if the EU is trying to gradually respond to the first challenge by putting on the agenda amendments to the treaty, primarily in terms of increasing coercive powers and moving away from the principle of unanimity in decision-making procedures. So the answer to the second question remains open.

At the same time, Poland's recent proposals to transfer control over grain transportation to the ports to Germany and Lithuania demonstrate that the trend toward maintaining solidarity within the EU is still prevalent.

The war in Ukraine has shown that the EU is quite capable of acting as a single entity, and it is possible that without the threat of war, it can increase the level of common interests, giving greater importance to common goals.