German election results according to experts
The conservative CDU led by Friedrich Merz won the 2025 German elections.
After the vote count is complete, preliminary results show that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, and its sister Christian Social Union (CSU) won the election with 28.6% of the vote.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is partially recognized as extremist, came in second with 20.8% of the vote.
Former partners in the ruling coalition, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, received 16.4% and 11.6% respectively. The fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was also part of the coalition but left the government in November, failed to pass the 5% threshold to enter the lower house of the German parliament, or Bundestag.
We asked experts to comment on the election results and answer 3 main questions:
1. What broader political trends do the recent election results in Germany reveal, and how might they reflect or influence wider shifts across Europe?
2. How could the outcome of these elections affect Germany’s role within the European Union, and might this shift be seen as beneficial for European unity and integration?
3. Given Germany’s influence on EU foreign policy, do you believe the new government will strengthen support for Ukraine in terms of military aid, economic assistance, and diplomatic backing?
FRANK SCHIMMELFENNIG
Full Professor at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
"The results of the recent German elections indicate a broader trend of political “normalization” in Germany, but also the strengthening of the hard right, increasing fragmentation of the political landscape, and the shrinking of the traditional centrist mainstream. This reflects a pattern seen in several other European countries, where dissatisfaction with established parties has fueled support for more radical alternatives. In contrast to many other countries, however, the consensus and possibility to maintain the “firewall” with the hard right still holds. Still, the weakening of centrist forces is likely to pose challenges for political stability in Germany, and it will constrain policy (e.g. to weaken the debt brake) and institutional changes (e.g. to safeguard the independence of the Constitutional Court).
At the same time, the outcome of these elections is likely to reinforce Germany’s role within the European Union, particularly in maintaining unity and integration. As a chancellor, Friedrich Merz is likely to be more engaged at the EU level than Olaf Scholz. If key figures such as Boris Pistorius take on a stronger role in the government as representatives of the SPD, Germany could pursue a more assertive leadership stance within the EU on defence. This would likely translate into continued support for European solidarity and efforts to counter political fragmentation at the continental level.
Germany’s influence on EU foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, is also expected to strengthen under the new government. Germany could maintain or even increase its commitment to supporting Ukraine through military aid, economic assistance, and diplomatic backing. This would align with Berlin’s broader strategic interests and reinforce the EU’s collective stance against Russian aggression, ensuring that Ukraine remains a priority in European policymaking."
SUSAN STEWART
Senior Fellow, SWP - German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Germany
"I think the election results reveal Germans’ desire for stability, and that most people would welcome a “grand coalition” with just two parties, considering the problems we experienced with the “traffic light coalition”. I also think that they would welcome a more decisive form of leadership. Of course the fact that the AfD doubled its score also points strongly to a shift to the right on the whole, even though Die Linke did better than originally anticipated, and to an embrace of populism and of some very problematic stances on migration, foreign policy, etc. by numerous voters. This latter trend (populism on the (far) right) is very pronounced now in Europe as a whole, and is apparently being welcomed by the current US government.
If Merz becomes Chancellor and is able to deliver on his promises, then Germany will play a stronger role in the EU and there will be greater clarity about Berlin’s positions than in recent years. But I don’t think that even strong German leadership will be able to unify the EU, as there is simply too much diversity across Member States. If Germany manages to cooperate more meaningfully and intensively with either France or Poland or both, that will already be a big improvement.
Considering the positions of the CDU in the opposition during recent years, I think we can expect more decisive support for Ukraine from the next government, even if the SPD is part of it. But I think it will be a change in degree rather than a really substantive shift in amount and type of support. I am not sure that the new German government will see defending Ukraine as being very closely connected with defending European (and therefore German) security as a whole. So there might be a tendency to say that Germany needs to focus on its own security and therefore has limited resources to provide to Ukraine. Also, much will depend on how the position of the US develops. It will not be easy for Germany (and Europe) to accept that the transatlantic relationship as we knew it has collapsed. It is difficult to predict what the reaction of the German government will consist of once this realization sets in. And if the US and Russia continue to develop a closer, less antagonistic relationship, then there will be a lot of pressure by some political and economic actors in Germany (and parts of German society) to return to a better relationship with Russia. Some of these actors will be from the CDU and the SPD. So there are a lot of question marks right now, and I am not sure how support for Ukraine will fare once these questions have been answered."
MARKUS KOTZUR
Chair for Public Law, European and International Public Law, University of Hamburg, Germany
"The “winner” of the elections, the CDU with Friedrich Merz as candidate to become the new chancellor, in the election campaign tried to primarily focus on economic recovery but did not succeed in doing so. After further criminal attacks (Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg) committed by asylum seekers, migration become the overwhelming topic. Friedrich Merz and the CDU see Angela Merkel´s liberal migration policy as mistake and endorse a much more restrictive approach. With the new German Government – most likely a CDU-SPD-coalition, a more restrictive migration policy might also become the prevalent approach on the European plane. This approach is shared by many other European countries and will most probably not cause further shifts in Europe. Next to migration, economic recovery (inflation, energy costs) will be a top topic; “Green” positions have been weakened in that regards. The new government will be under enormous pressure to strengthen democratic resilience against right wing tendencies and is “doomed to be successful”. There is a general fear that, if the new government will fail, the AFD might win the next elections. Finally, the dangers caused by Trump regarding the Transatlantic relations are a big concern.
For sure, the new Government will be a pro-European one. A restrictive migration policy and economic recovery will be on top of the agenda. If the Government succeeds in having less internal conflicts than the last one, it might have a stronger position on the European plane. So I see some benefits for European unity and integration.
Regarding support for Ukraine, that is, at least, what the CDU favors. The SPD is a bit more reluctant. However, Germany´s role will strongly depend on what the US and Trump´s Government decide to do. However, I expect as strong support for Ukraine as possible and realistic. And I see Germany very closely cooperating with France and the United kingdom."