So needed support

Security

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and recent doubts over further US military assistance to Ukraine are set to cast a shadow over a NATO defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday (11 October), Euroactiv informs.

With Russia’s war on Ukraine continuing to rage in the east, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo simmering, and Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh seeing no end in sight, Europe faces a new challenge in its neighbourhood after Hamas launched a ‘surprise’ attack on Israel over the weekend.

At the same time, the new security threat has raised questions as to whether the US could stay on top of multiple conflicts without also impeding its own military readiness.

With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attending as a special guest, NATO defence ministers will attempt to portray sustained support to Ukraine as the latest series of events in their neighbourhood vies for their attention,  spurring questions on the shape of long-term assistance to Kyiv.

US vows ‘continued support’

For the moment, the worry about the US’ attention being diverted from one war to the other is not an issue, three NATO diplomats said on the eve of the meeting.

However, it would be a matter of concern if Israel started requiring the same capabilities as Kyiv from the Americans, one of the NATO diplomats pointed out.

“On the question of whether or not US support for Israel could possibly come at the expense of US support for Ukraine, we don’t anticipate any major challenges in that regard,” US ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, assured on Tuesday.

Washington could “stay focused on our partnership and commitment to Israel’s security while also meeting our commitments and promise to continue supporting Ukraine, as it defends its territory and protects all of the values that all of us hold dear here across the NATO alliance.”

The matter is, nevertheless, going to be in the backdrop of the meeting, several NATO diplomats admitted, as it impacts long-term support to Kyiv.

But the question may linger in some NATO members’ minds as they look at their weapons stockpiles running low.

Some have already said they assessing the amount of troops and equipment they can sacrifice and give to Ukraine while they undertake a major overhaul of their defence plans, a second NATO diplomat said.  

NATO members and other Western countries meeting in the Ukraine Defence Contact Group are expected to discuss incentivising domestic industries to step up production capacities.

In addition, new packages of support for Kyiv to face the upcoming winter are expected to be agreed upon, three people with knowledge of the matter said ahead of the meeting. 

Air defence “in particular is going to be critical during those winter months, where we have seen the Russians rely on indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure, critical infrastructure, to try and plunge the Ukrainian people into cold and darkness”, Smith said.

NATO defence ministers will also hold the first NATO-Ukraine Council at the ministers’ level, with Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov attending the talks.

Ukraine’s aspirations to join the Western military alliance and Kyiv’s reform programme dubbed the ‘Adapted Annual Programme’ will be discussed.

But NATO countries remain split in fixing a clear line as to which conditions Kyiv must fulfil before joining the military alliance. 

On one side, some believe the process should be benchmark-driven to speed up accession, with others, including Germany, believing accession would be a purely political decision.

Attention will also be on the Turkish delegation, as Sweden still awaits Ankara’s  – and Budapest’s – final green lights to join NATO as a full member.

“We believe that it is time for Hungary and Turkey to honour their commitments and complete the ratification process to have Sweden join the Alliance as soon as possible,” Smith said, in a voice supported by other NATO members.